澳大利亚零售业展望2020

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　 C O NT E NT S

　FOREWORD

　4

　INDUSTRY

　IN

　FOCUS

　 5

　AUSTRALIAN

　RETAIL

　OUTLOOK

　2 0 2 0

　SURVEY

　 10

　RE T AIL

　TREN DS

　b y

　KPMG

　SUSTAINABLE

　IS

　THE

　NEW

　TICKET

　TO

　PLAY

　 20

　SOCIAL

　CUSTOMER

　CARE

　 22

　RETAIL

　AND

　THE

　SOCIAL

　LICENCE

　TO

　OPERATE

　 24

　CASHLESS

　IS

　KING

　 26

　IS

　E - COMMERCE

　PRIMING

　TO

　BOOM ?

　 28

　INVEST

　IN

　CX

　–

　BUT

　NOT

　FOR

　CX

　SAKE

　 30

　PUTTING

　CUSTOMERS

　FIRST

　WITH

　ADVANCED

　ANALYTICS

　 32

　RE T AIL

　PR OFILES

　COLES ’

　TRANSFORMATION

　GATHERS

　PACE

　 35

　EBAY

　ACCELERATES

　GROWTH

　38

　OFFICEWORKS ’

　BLUEPRINT

　FOR

　2 0 2 0

　 40

　SWAROVSKI

　SPARKLES

　DOWN

　UNDER

　 42

　DOMINO ’ S

　DELIVERS

　MORE

　INNOVATION

　 44

　EXPE R T

　F OREC A S T S

　b y

　KPMG

　WHY

　RETAILERS

　FAIL

　49

　ECONOMIC

　UPDATE

　 52

　NZ

　RETAIL :

　BLACK

　CLOUD

　OR

　SILVER

　FERN ?

　 54

　THE

　POWER

　OF

　PERPETUAL

　INVENTORY

　56

　BRIGHT

　SPARKS

　IN

　TOUGH

　M & A

　MARKET

　 57

　HOW

　TO

　GENERATE

　MORE

　CASH

　FLOW

　 58

　The

　Australian

　Retail

　Outlook is

　printed

　by

　Octomedia

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　 EDITOR

　Dimitri

　Sotiropoulos dimitri@octomedia.com.au

　ADVERTISING

　Jeff

　Purser ads@octomedia.com.au

　 GRAPHIC

　DESIGN

　Sofia

　Costales sofia.c@octomedia.com.au

　 GENERAL

　MANAGER

　Amie

　Larter amie@octomedia.com.au

　 FOR

　MEDIA

　RELEASES irnews@octomedia.com.au

　 Austral i an

　Retai l Outl ook

　2020® Oct omedia

　P ty

　L t d

　ac c epts

　no

　liability

　f or

　an y

　err ors, omis sions,

　or

　c onsequenc es, including an y

　los s

　or damage ,

　arising

　fr om r elianc e

　on

　inf orma tion

　in

　this publica tion.

　T he

　vie w s

　e xpr es sed in

　this

　publica tion r eflect

　the opinions

　of

　the writ ers

　and

　ar e

　not nec es sarily

　endorsed b y

　Oct omedia

　P ty

　L t d.

　W e r ec ommend

　obtaining pr of es sional

　advic e

　fr om an ac credit ed

　advisor

　bef or e

　r elying

　on

　the inf orma tion in

　this

　publica tion.

　Oct omedia

　P ty

　L t d

　r eserves

　all c op yright

　o v er

　the c ont ent included

　in

　this

　publica tion. No part of

　this

　publica tion

　ma y

　be

　r epr oduc ed,

　s t or ed in

　a

　r etriev al

　s y s t em,

　or

　tr ansmitt ed

　in

　an y

　f orm,

　as per the A us tr alian

　C op yright

　A ct

　1968. 1 2 8 0

　35

　54

　F OREW ORD

　The

　y ear

　that

　was

　2019

　WAS

　ANOTHER

　MOMENTOUS

　YEAR

　FOR

　AUSTRALIAN

　RETAIL.

　Headlines

　were

　made

　(often)

　for

　the

　wrong

　reasons

　as

　retail spending

　slumped

　to

　a

　28-year

　low,

　the

　industry

　was

　further impacted

　by

　the

　challenge

　of

　employee

　underpayments

　and

　more retailers

　were

　forced

　to

　shut

　their

　doors,

　driven

　by

　a

　wave

　of consumer

　change.

　There

　can

　be

　no

　doubt

　that

　the

　global

　retail

　sector

　is

　being impacted

　by

　hugely

　disruptive

　forces

　as

　consumers

　shift

　to

　digital and

　online

　as

　their

　preferred

　medium

　of

　engaging

　with

　their favourite

　brands.

　The

　simple

　truth

　is

　Australian

　and

　New

　Zealand

　retailers

　are

　not immune

　from

　the

　changes

　impacting

　the

　rest

　of

　the

　world.

　The

　pressure

　on

　retailers

　to

　remain

　relevant

　in

　the

　eyes

　of

　the consumer

　has

　never

　been

　stronger.

　Consumers

　are

　shopping differently,

　paying

　differently

　and

　their

　values

　are

　continuing

　to

　shift as

　sustainability

　and

　ethical

　retailing

　have

　taken

　centre

　stage.

　Retailers

　around

　the

　world

　are

　recalibrating

　their

　business

　models to

　optimise

　(usually

　downsize)

　store

　portfolios

　and

　physical

　space alongside

　maximising

　online

　and

　digital

　engagement.

　They

　continue to

　be

　subject

　to

　the

　challenge

　of

　profitable

　growth

　across

　all

　channels in

　the

　face

　of

　unparalleled

　headwinds,

　combined

　with

　the

　white

　hot spotlight

　of

　where

　they

　fit in

　the

　circular

　economy

　and

　their

　social license

　to

　operate.

　Across

　the

　Tasman,

　the

　New

　Zealand

　retail

　market

　has

　remained resilient

　amongst

　a

　buoyant

　national

　economy.

　However,

　much

　like Australia,

　international

　entrants

　are

　driving

　competition

　and

　placing pressure

　on

　retail

　margins.

　So

　who

　is

　doing

　well?

　JB

　Hi-Fi

　continues

　to

　dominate

　as

　the strongest

　player

　in

　the

　sweet

　spot

　of

　consumer

　electronics.

　The Universal

　Store

　continues

　to

　power

　ahead

　as

　a

　beacon

　for

　other

　local apparel

　retailers.

　Online

　players

　such

　as

　Kogan

　and

　Temple

　and Webster

　are

　producing

　good

　results

　leveraging

　data

　and

　digital

　to engage

　with

　consumers.

　History

　has

　shown

　that,

　overtime,

　retail

　has

　a

　tremendous

　capacity to

　adapt

　to

　changing

　customer

　preferences

　and

　consumer

　behaviour. We

　believe

　that

　the

　next

　decade

　will

　see

　even

　more

　dramatic

　change in

　the

　retail

　sector

　as

　how

　we

　live

　and

　work

　further

　reshapes

　what best

　practice

　retail

　should

　look

　like.

　Of

　course,

　with

　any

　signi fi cant

　change

　also

　comes

　signi fi cant opportunity.

　2020

　is

　likely

　to

　be

　another

　challenging

　year

　where Australian

　and

　New

　Zealand

　retailers

　will

　continue

　to

　adapt

　and look

　for

　that

　opportunity

　to

　di ff erentiate

　themselves,

　reinventing their

　businesses

　and

　leveraging

　digital

　and

　data

　to

　engage

　with their

　target

　customer.

　 MATTHEW

　DARBY ,

　Partner, National Sector Lead Retail, KPMG JAMES

　STEWART ,

　Partner, Joint National Leader, Restucturing Services, KPMG

　 4

　|

　A US TRALIAN

　RET AIL

　OUTL OOK

　 2020

　www .insider etail. c om.au

　F rom

　the

　editor

　WELCOME

　TO

　THE

　AUSTRALIAN

　RETAIL

　OUTLOOK

　2020,

　CO-PRODUCED

　by

　Octomedia

　–

　publisher

　of

　Inside

　Retail

　– and

　KPMG.

　Another

　year,

　same

　challenges

　and

　even more

　difficulties

　have

　made

　retailing

　Down Under

　a

　tricky

　task.

　Just

　ask

　some

　of

　the latest

　retail

　casualties

　to

　enter

　administration or

　those

　suffering

　from

　the

　unprecedented bushfires

　that

　have

　ravaged

　the

　countryside.

　But

　it’s

　not

　all

　bad

　news.

　Consumers have

　more

　paths

　to

　purchasing

　goods

　than ever

　before,

　and

　the

　increased

　competition has

　forced

　retailers

　in

　Australia

　and

　New Zealand

　to

　up

　their

　value

　proposition

　to

　keep

　pace.

　The

　result?

　Exciting

　partnerships, launches

　and

　innovative

　retailing

　by successful

　local

　retailers

　that

　are

　powering ahead

　in

　the

　new

　retail

　landscape.

　On

　the

　flipside,

　those

　lagging

　behind on

　merchandise

　and

　service

　are

　falling

　by the

　wayside.

　This

　year’s

　edition

　features

　the

　latest insights

　from

　some

　of

　the

　largest

　retailers operating

　in

　Australia.

　We

　speak

　to

　Coles CEO

　Steven

　Cain

　about

　the

　supermarket giant’s

　last

　12

　months

　and

　their

　current transformation

　journey.

　Ebay’s

　MD

　Tim

　MacKinnon

　talks

　about

　the e-commerce

　conglomerate’s

　continued

　success in

　Oz,

　while

　O ffi ceworks’

　acting

　MD

　Michael Howard

　talks

　about

　the

　retailer’s

　plans

　for

　the next

　12

　months.

　Domino’s

　ANZ

　CEO

　Nick Knight

　gives

　us

　a

　glimpse

　of

　the

　pizza

　firm’s innovation

　focus

　and

　Swarovski’s

　MD

　Brett Spinks

　talks

　about

　the

　jewellery

　firm’s

　plans.

　KPMG’s

　experts

　delve

　into

　the

　latest and

　largest

　trends

　in

　retailing

　while

　also offering

　their

　forecasts

　on

　the

　business

　landscape

　over

　the

　next

　12

　months.

　We

　also have

　the

　results

　from

　our

　industry-wide survey

　and

　much

　more.

　I

　hope

　you

　enjoy

　this

　year’s

　edition

　and that

　it

　provides

　some

　valuable

　insights

　for the

　year

　ahead.

　 DIMITRI

　SOTIROPOULOS

　Editor, Australian Retail Outlook

　I N DUS TR Y

　IN

　F O CUS

　C O M PLEX ITY

　A T

　THE

　C ORE

　OF L O C AL

　RE T AIL

　LAN D SC APE

　IN DUS TR Y

　IN

　F O CUS

　 Sur v e yin g

　the

　scene

　in

　2020

　It’s

　certainly

　been

　a

　tough

　year

　for

　retailers,

　and

　it

　doesn’t

　look

　like

　trading conditions

　are

　going

　to

　get

　any

　better

　in

　the

　immediate

　future.

　IF ONE WORD HAD TO BE USED IN DESCRIBING THE CURRENT state of Australian retail and broader economy, perhaps ‘tempestuous’ is the most appropriate. On the one hand, while some categories and retailers are thriving, others are failing and falling into obsolescence. And then there’s the impact of unprecedented bushfires across the country. The costs from damage to property and wealth ‚will likely run into many billions‛ according to Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital. ‚The Victorian Black Saturday bushfires are estimated to have cost $4.4bn, whereas the current fires have covered an area 15 times bigger,‛ he says. Indeed, ANZ says consumer confidence fell 1.7 per cent in the first week of January to its lowest level in over four years – the ‘unusual drop’ reflecting the the impact of the bushfires. Meanwhile, in this year’s Australian Retail Outlook Survey [page 10], over half of the 610 participants from across the industry, of which 24.5 per cent are c-suite executives, owners or board members, think there will only be slight changes to trading conditions over the next 12 months. It’s a view echoed by Dr Brendan Rynne, Partner and Chief Economist at KPMG, who in a must read economic update, says the trading environment facing Australia in 2020 is likely to be a continuation of the current tough trading conditions [page 52]. With consumer confidence already low due to the catastrophic bushfires; global economic factors and the volatile value of the Australian dollar; plus the

　“

　same old culprits of rental overheads and competition from both local and overseas retailers, it’s no wonder that retailing is expected to be tough in 2020. But while this may sound very downbeat, there’s also been some positive news for retailers to herald a new decade.

　CHRISTMAS

　KINDNESS

　The first retail spending update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of the year and decade, is a positive one for retailers. Buoyed by major online sales events, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, retail had its largest retail sales increase in two years, up 0.9 per cent in November to a record $27.9 billion – doubling the increase expected by economists. ...

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