美国硬线与百货零售行业分析
下面是小编为大家整理的美国硬线与百货零售行业分析,供大家参考。
Global
Re searc h
6
April
2020
U .S .
H a r dlin e s
&
G r o c e r y
R e t ail
U BS
E v i de nc e
L ab
inside :
C O S T /BJ/ S a m" s
–
D eep Di ve
i n to
th e
War e h ou s e
Clubs "
L T
P osi ti on i n g
W a r e h o u se
cl u b s
a r e
w e ll
p o sit i o n e d
i n
a
p r e -
an d
p o st C o v i d - 19
w o r l d
Wh il e
th e
w are hou s e
c l ub w as
alrea dy
one
of
t he
be s t
m ode l s
i n r e t a il , w e
t hi nk i t
w ill b e
ev en
b etter
po s i ti on ed
po s t
Co v i d-19. A s
c ons um e r s
c ons ol i da t e
t r i p s
& buy
i n bul k, CO ST,
B J’ s ,
&
Sam’ s
s tan d
t o
g ai n
mem b ers
&
tri p s
p er
m emb er.
Sev eral
takeaw ay s fro m th e
4 th
i n s tal lmen t
o f
U B S
Ev i denc e
L a b’ s
w a r e hous e
c l ub s ur vey
of
1.5k +
s uppor t th i s
c on c l u s i on. No te
th i s
s u rv ey
w as
c omp leted
b efo re
th e
ri s e
o f
Co v i d-19 i n t he
U S . At
th at
ti me,
c l ub
memb ers
arti c u lated
s tr ong
l o y al ty .
W e
th i nk
th at " s
no t
on l y i n creas ed , bu t
mo re
memb ers
h ave
li kel y
j oi n e d. N ot a bl y , G oog l e
T r e nds
f or “BJ ’ s ”
& “ Sam’ s
Cl ub ”
i n creas ed
26 %
&
16 %,
res p ec ti v el y ,
i n
th e
l as t
3
w eeks
Y o Y .
Th es e retai l ers
s hou l d b en efi t
as
th ey
w ill
li kel y
ho l d on to
a
good po rti on o f
th e
n e w
memb ers ev en
as
th e
en v i ron men t
retu rn s
to
a
n ew
no rmal . W e
d i ve
i n to
th i s
i n th i s
re po rt.
W a r e h o u se
cl u b
m e m b e r s
a r e
l o ya l
Th e
s u rv ey
s ho w ed
c on s u mers
remai n
c om mi tted
to
c l ub s .
I n
fac t,
90 %
o f
CO ST memb ers
s ai d
th ey
are
v er y
or
s o mew h at
li kel y
to
ren ew .
T h i s
c omp ares
to
88 %
at AM ZN
&
Sam’ s
an d
83 %
at
B Js .
F u rth er,
73 %
o f
CO ST" s
US
memb ers
s ub s c ri b e
t o Pri me
( v s . 62 %
i n th e
" 17 s u rv ey
& 50 %
i n " 15 ) . Ev en
w . h i gh er
p en etrati on, CO ST
h as produ c ed
8 s tra i gh t
Q s
o f
M SD +
c o re
US
SSS.
I n teres ti ng l y , th e
s u rv ey
s ho w s
c u s to mer s s ee
al l
w areh ou s e
retai l ers
c omp l emen ti ng
A M ZN.
Sh opp ers
w ho
v i s i t
CO ST,
B J,
or Sam" s
4 +
ti mes
p er
mon t h are
mo re
li kel y
to
a l s o s ub s c ri b e
to
Pri me.
CO ST" s
l ead ers h i p i n th i s
c ateg o ry
& th e
s tren g th
o f
i ts
mod el
rei n fo rc es
th e
c on s tru c ti ve
c as e
on i ts
s to c k. A n
i n cr e a se
i n
n e w
m e m b e r s
c o u l d
h ave
a
m ean i n g f u l
i mp ac t
o n
EPS W areh ou s e
c l ub s
s hou l d s ee
c on s i d erab l e
pro fi tab ili ty
i mpro v emen ts
fro m n e w
memb er s i gnup s
i n th e
w ake
o f
Co v i d-19. W e
c on s i d e r a
s c enari o w h ere
eac h retai l e r s ees
15 % i n creas es
i n
m emb ers
/
w areh ou s e
&
th e s e
n ew
memb ers
p ay
b as e
l ev el
fees .
Th i s w oul d a dd 21 p pt s
t o BJ " s
CY " 20 EPS
gr ow t h & 11 ppt s
t o CO S T " s
CY " 20 EPS
gr ow t h. C o st c o " s
un i qu e
st r u ct u r e
supp o r t s
i t s
p r e m i um
v a l ua t i o n
F or ex ampl e,
man y
c u s to mers
eq u ate
K i rkl an d to
n ame
b ran d s . W e
es t.
K i rkl an d c ou l d be
w or t h $76 bn, or ~ $170 a
s ha r e , ba s e d on a
c om pa r a bl e
a na l y s i s
ac ro ss
10 br a n ds . Th i s
acc oun ts
fo r 60 %
o f
CO ST" s
c ap . F u rth er,
CO ST" s
M F I
ca n b e
v i ew ed
as
a
gro w i ng p erp etu i ty . Us i ng a
s p li t
DCF
a n al y s i s , CO ST" s
M F I
i s
w o rth
~$220/ s h w h il e
i ts
retai l
op s c ont r i bu te
~ $150/ s h. Th i s
i s
ev en
h i gh er
th an
our $355 mu l ti p l es
d ri v en
p ri ce
target.
Mi ch ael
Lasser
A na l ys t m i cha e l.l a ss e r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2440
Mar k C ar d e n
A na l ys t m a rk .ca r de n@ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
3218
A t ul
M ahes w ar i , C FA Asso c i a t e
An a l y st a t ul.m a he s w a r i @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
4103
Mi c h ae l
G o l d smi th
A na l ys t m i cha e l .gol ds m i t h@ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2951
F i g u r e
1 :
Goo g l e
T r e n d s
–
" B J " s
W h o l e sa l e
C l u b "
F i g u r e
2 :
S h o pp e r
V i sit
F r e qu e n cy
B y
W a r e h o u se
C l u b
1
o r
m o r e
/
w eek 21%
29%
21%
Y oY
( bps )
-100
700
300
2 - 3
/
m o n th
32%
22%
26%
Y oY
( bps )
100
-500
200
0
1
o r
l e ss
/
m o n th
46%
49%
53%
Apr-17 O ct-17 Apr-18 O ct-18 Apr-19 O ct-19
B J " s
Who l es al e
C l ub: ( U n i t ed
St at es)
Y oY
( bps )
-100
-200
-400
S our ce :
G oog l e
T r e nd s
S our ce :
U B S
Ev i d en ce
L ab
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep ared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
4 .
UB S
do es
an d s eek s
to
do bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i e s
c o v ered
i n i ts
r es earc h rep o rts . As
a
res u l t , i n v es to rs
s hou l d b e
aw are th at
th e
fi rm m ay
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
th i s
rep o rt.
I n v es to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s
rep o rt
a s C O ST B J
Sam " s
C l u b
Sear c h i n t er est
p eaked
f or B J "s
Who l esal e
C l ub t h e
100
75
50
25 w eek
o f
3/15, bu t
h as
r em ai n ed
el ev at ed
si n ce
Ret ai l er s , Br oad li ne
Am er i cas
Equit ies
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fa c to r i n maki ng t h ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on.
Sec t ion
1
SUMMAR Y
KEY
T A KE A W A YS:
W a rehouse
clubs
are
in
a structur all y
s t rong
position
f o r
the
changing
en vironment
U.S.
Hardlines &
Grocery
Retail
6 April
2020
Bottom
Line:
W a re house
Club
Fl yw heel
–
H o w
COS T ,
BJ
and Sam"s
ha v e
built
a
sustainable
competitiv e
adv a ntag e
in
retail
1, 000
Sales
Per
SKU
Per
St or e
Per
W eek
Pr i c e
g a ps
wi th c o mpetit ors widen
Mor e Members Sign
Up
25 ,0 00
20 ,0 00
15 ,0 00
10 ,0 00
5,0 00
0
W a r e hous e Club s
can of fer
be tter mer c h
a t lo w e r
price s
The
W a r e house Cl ub
M o d e l Fly w heel
Ve n d o r s c o mpete f o r
limit e d s helf
s p ace
Sales in cr e a s e
S ourc e :
K a nt a r,
UBS
The
war e hous e c l u bs "
s c a l e and
l i m i t e d
S K U
of f e r i ng
hav e gi ve n
t h em
unm a t c he d
buy i ng
power
i n co n s u m a b le s
re tail.
In
p a rticu la r,
w e b e lie ve th is
h a s
a llo w e d
C o stco
to
d e velo p
a
su sta in a b l e co mp etitive a d van t ag e.
Sam"s
C l u b
and
B J "s
h a ve re p licate d
th ese
tra its
to
a
lesser
e xte n t ,
b u t
rem a in
w e ll
p o s itio n e d .
800
600
400
200
0
Overall
Sales
Per
SKU
Cost c o"s
buy ing p o w er
i s
ev id e n t wh en
l o ok in g
at sa le s
p er
S K U
U.S.
Hardlines &
Grocery
Retail
6 April
2020
ha s
re ma ine d
elev at e d
s i nce
S e a rch
i n tere s t p e a k e d
fo r
B J " s Wholesale
C l ub
t h e
w e ek
o f
3 / 15 ,
but
T a kea w a y
1:
W e
th ink
the
w a re house
clubs
ha v e
seen
an increase
in
ne w
member
sign
ups
T r ends
–
Sear che s
for
BJ"s
Wholesale
Club, Indexed
to
100
T r ends
–
Sear ches
for
Sam"s
Club,
Index e d to
100
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
Apr-17
O c t -17
Apr-18
O c t -18
Apr-19
O c t-1 9
BJ "s
Who l es a l e
Cl ub:
(U nited
S t ate s )
0
Apr-17
Oct- 17
Apr-18
Oct- 18
Apr-19
Oct -19
Sa ms
Cl ub:
( U ni ted
St a t e s )
So urce:
Goog le
Tren ds
Whi l e BJ " s
Whol es ale Cl ub
and
S a m" s
Cl ub
hav e not
r e l eas ed
mont hl y sale s
d a ta,
e a ch saw
sig n i f ican t u p tick s
in
G oo g le
sea r ch in te rest
in
mid
M a rch .
B o th
reta il e r s
sa w
th eir
h i g h e st
leve l s
o f
in ter e st
in
th ree years th e w ee k
o f
M a rch 15 .
We
b e lie ve t h is
like l y corresp o n d s
w i th
p e ak
st o c k
u p .
Like
C o st co ,
w e b e lie ve b o th
w a reh o u s e clu b
reta i l e r s
a r e like l y to
rep o rt
co n s id e r ab le
lifts
to
th eir
C " 1Q sa me
st o r e sale s.
N o tab l y,
72 %
o f
B J "s
sa les
a r e in
co r e gr oce r y cat e gor i es .
Thi s
compar es
t o
57 %
a t
S a m" s Cl ub
a n d
53 %
at Cos t c o .
p eaked
the
s ame
w ee k ,
but
ha s
c o me
down
fa s t er
s i nce
S i mi l a rl y ,
se a rch
i n tere st
f o r
S a m"
C l u b
U.S.
Hardlines &
Grocery
Retail
6 April
2020
T a kea w a y
1:
W e
belie v e
the
w a re house
clubs
wil l
retain
many of
th eir
ne w
members
Potent ial
Impact
F r om
N e w
Member
Sign ups
on
W a r e h o u s e
Clu b
MF I
&
EPS
Co st co
S am " s
Clu b
BJ "s
E s t i m a t e d
P ay ing
Memb e r s
CY " 19
( 0 00s)
55,300
25,750
5,750
A v g
N umb e r
of
W a r e h ouse s
CY " 19
778
599
217
Es t.
Pay i ng
M e mb ers
P e r
Av er ag e
W a reh ou s e
( 000 s )
71.1
43.0
26.6
As su med New
M e mb er
L i f t
fro m
C o v i d
19
15 %
15%
15%
I n c r emen t a l
M e mb ers
Per
W a reh ou s e
( 000 s )
10.7
6.4
4.0
A v g
N umb e r
of
W a r e h ouse s
CY " 19
797
599
219
Ba s e
Memb e r sh ip
F ee
$60
$45
$55
I n c r emental
M e mb er sh i p
I n c o me ( $
mm )
$510
$174
$48
Co st co
S am " s
Clu b
BJ "s
Inc r e m e n t a l
Memb e r s
( 000s)
8,503
3,863
872
As su med Sp en d
Per
N e w
M e mb e r
$2 , 000
$2 , 000
$2, 000
Inc r e m e n t a l
S a l e s
( $
mm )
$17,006
$7,725
$1,745
Inc r e m e n t a l
S a l e s
+ MF I
( $
mm )
$17,516
$7,899
$1,793
U B S e
CY " 20
Ope r a t ing
Margin
3.4 %
3.2 %
3.2 %
U B S e
CY " 20
T ax
Ra t e
27.0 %
25.5 %
27.0 %
Inc r e ...
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