疫情与旅游业转型
下面是小编为大家整理的疫情与旅游业转型,供大家参考。
1.
T ou r i s m
a nd
C O V ID - 19
–
un p r ec e d e n t ed
e c o n o m i c
i m p a c ts
I n
2019 ,
in t e r n a tio n a l
t o u r i s t
a rr iv a l s
r e a c hed
1 . 5
b illi o n ,
a
4
p e r
c en t
in c r e a s e
o ve r
2018 , c o n s o lid a ti n g
a
t en - y e a r
r e c o r d
w he r e
t o u r- i s m
g r e w
f a s t e r
t h a n
t he
w o r ld
e c o n o m y
a s
a
w h o le .
D o m e s ti c
t o u r i s m
a dded
a
f u r- t he r
8 . 8
b illi o n
a rr iv a l s .
T he
s e c t o r
g ene r- a t ed
$ 1 . 5
t r illi o n
in
ex p o r t s
a nd
e m p l o y ed o ne
in
t en
p e o p le
di r e c t l y
o r
indi r e c t l y . 10
T o u r i s m
c a m e
t o
a
s t a nd s ti ll
in
m id - M a r c h
2020 .
I n t e rna t i o nal
t ou r i s t a rr iv al s
d e c rea s e d
b y
56
pe r
c en t
in
t h e
fi r s t
m o n t h s
o f
t h e
y e a r , w i t h
n u m be r s
in
M a y
d o w n
b y
98
pe r
c en t .
T h i s t r a n s l a t e s
in t o
a l o ss
o f
ne a r l y
$ 320
billi o n
in e x p o r t s
–
o v e r
t h r ee
t i m e s
w h a t
w a s
l o s t
d u r in g t h e
w ho le
o f
t h e
2009
g l o b a l
e c o n o m i c
c r i s i s . 11 F o r w a r d - l oo kin g
s c en a r i o s
p o in t
t o
p o ss ible de c l in e s
in
a rr i v al s
a nd
r e cei p t s
f r o m
int e rn a - t i o n a l
t ou r i s m
o f
58
pe r
c en t
t o
78
pe r
c en t
f o r t h e
w ho l e
y e a r
de p endin g
o n
t he
s p eed
o f
c o n - t a in m en t
o f
t he
p a nde m i c ,
t he
du r a tio n
o f
t r a vel r e s t r i c tio n s
a nd
t he
g r a du a l
r e - o p enin g
o f
b o r-
de r s
t h a t
h a s
n o w
b e g un
b u t
r e m a in s
un c e r t a in . 12
T hi s
i mm en s e
s h o c k
c o uld
t r a ns la t e
i n t o
a
d r op o f
850
m illi o n
t o
1 . 1
billi o n
in t e r n a t i o n a l
t ou r - i s t s
a nd
a l o ss
o f
$ 910
billi o n
t o
$ 1 . 2
t r illi o n
in e x p o r t
r e v en u e s
f r o m
t ou r i s m,
p u tt in g
100
t o 120
m illi o n
di r e c t
t ou r i s m
jo b s
a t
r i s k . 13
T hi s
i s
p a r ti c ul a r l y
c r i ti c a l
as
a r o und
80
p e r
c en t o f
a ll
t o u r i s m
b u s ine ss e s
a r e
M S M E s .
C o n s ide r a b le
c h a llen g e s
lie
a he a d ,
in c lud - in g
t he
un k n o w n
ev o lu tio n
o f
t he
p a nde m i c a nd
h o w
c o n s u m e r
c o n fi den c e
w ill
r e c o ve r . T he
g l o b a l
e c o n o m y
i s
p r o j e c t ed
t o
c o n t r a c t s h a r p l y
b y
4 . 9
p e r
c en t
in
2020 ,
t h o u g h
t he
o u t l oo k
i s
ex p e c t ed
t o
p i c k
u p
in
2021 ,
a cc o r d - in g
t o
t he
I n t e r n a tio n a l
M o ne t a r y
F und . 14
A l t h ou g h
c ou n t ri e s
a nd
in t e r n a t i o n a l
o r g a ni - z a tio n s
h a ve
i m p le m en t ed
a
r a n g e
o f
m e a s - u r e s
t o
m i ti g a t e
t he
s o c i o - e c o n o m i c
i m p a c t s o f
C O V I D - 19
a nd
t o
s ti m ul a t e
t he
r e c o ve r y
o f t o u r i s m ,
t he
m a g ni t ude
o f
t he
c r i s i s
r e q ui r e s ex t r a
e ff o r t s
a nd
c o n ti nued
s u pp o r t . 15
10
UN W T O ,
W o r ld
T o u ri s m
B a r o m e t e r ,
v o l .
18 ,
N o .
3 ,
J une
2020 ,
M a d r id ,
a v a il a b le
a t
h t tp s : // d o i . o r g / 10 . 18111 /w t o ba r o m e t e re n g
a nd
UN W T O o nline
D a t a
D a s h b o a r d ,
a v a il a b le
a t
h tt p s : // www . un w t o . o r g / in te r n a t i o n a l - t o u r i s m - a nd - c ov id - 19 .
11 UN W T O ,
W o r ld
T o u ri s m
B a r o m e t e r ,
v o l .
18 ,
N o .
3 ,
J une
2020
a nd
UN W T O ,
W o r ld
T o u ri s m
B a r o m e t e r ,
v o l .
18 ,
N o .
2 ,
M a y
2020 ,
M a d r id , a v ail a b le
a t
h t tp s : // d o i . o r g / 10 . 18111 /w t o ba r o m e t e re n g .
12 I bi d .
13 I bi d .
14 I n t e r n a t i o n a l
M o ne t a r y
F und ,
W or l d
E cono m i c
Ou t l o ok ,
J une
2020 .
15 UN W T O ,
" B r ie fi n g
N o t e
–
T o u r i s m
a nd
C O V I D - 19 .
I ss ue
1 .
H ow
a r e
c o un t r ie s
s u pp o r t in g
t o u r i s m
r e c o ve r y ? " ,
J une
2020 ,
a v a il a b le
a t h tt p s : // d o i . o r g / 10 . 18111 / 9789284421893 .
S ou r ce :
UN W T O ,
J ul y
2020 .
AFRICA
MI DDLE
EAS T 2019:
73
MIL.
(+6%)
2019:
61
MIL.
(+2%)
J AN.–M A Y
2020:
-47%
J AN.–M A Y
2020:
-52%
EUROPE
2019:
745
MIL.
(+4%)
J AN.–M A Y
2020:
-58%
AMER I CAS
2019:
220
MIL.
(+2%)
J AN.–M A Y
2020:
-47%
ASI A
AND
THE P ACIFIC
2019:
361
MIL.
(+4%)
J AN.–M A Y
2020:
-60%
F I G U R E
1 .
I N T E R N AT I O N A L
T O U R I S T
A RR I V A L S ,
J A N – M A Y
2020
( pe r c e n t a ge
c h a n ge )
2019:
1.5
BILLION
(+4%)
J AN.–M A Y
2020:
-56%
WORLD
S ou r ce :
UN W T O .
570
400
310
2003
SARS
+$50
billion
-1.4%
(real
terms)
0
Scenario
3:
$1170
billion,
-79%
The
abov e
are
not
for ecast s but
scenarios
base d
on
the
poss ible
openi ng
of
national
bor ders and
lifting
of
travel
restrictions
in July,
Sept.
and
Dec.
2020
respectively
200
2009
Global
economic
crisis
-$87
billion
-5.0%
(real
terms)
400
506
554
496
485
600
Scenario
1:
$910
billion,
-62%
Scenario
2:
$1080
billion,
-73%
773
657
707
800
2020
scenarios COV I D-19 901
892
1 , 096 1 , 132
979
988
1 , 200
1 , 000
3
1 , 22
1 , 250
1 , 281
1 , 220
1 , 347
1 , 400
1 , 457 1 , 478
1 , 600
F I G U R E
2 .
I N T E R N AT I O N A L
T O U R I S M
R E C E I P T S (E X P O R T S ) , 2000 – 2019
A N D
2020
S C E N A R I O S Billi o ns
o f
d o ll a r s
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
( e s t i mat e )
2020
(s c en a r i o -
b as ed )
1.1 S i gn i fi c an t
s p ill - o v e r
e ff e c t s o n t h e
who l e
o f
th e
e c o no m y
Be c a u s e
o f
t o u r i s m ’ s
s u pp l y
lin k a g e s
in
g oo d s a nd
s e r vi c e s
a nd
i t s
s t r o n g
m ul ti p lie r
e ff e c t ,
I nve s t m en t
R e p o r t ’ s
g r een fi eld
F D I
d a t a
s h o w s t h a t
t r a vel ,
t o u r i s m
a nd
h o s p i t a li t y
p r o j e c t s di r e c t l y
a ff e c t ed
b y
t he
l o c k d o w n
a r e
a m o n g
t he m o s t
s eve r el y
hi t ,
p a r ti c ul a r l y
a cc o mm o d a tio n a nd
f oo d
s e r vi c e
a c ti vi ti e s
( - 94
p e r
c en t ) . 17
t he
c ri s i s
j e o p a r di s e s
s u s t a in a bl e
devel o p m en t
in
b o t h
devel o p ed
a nd
devel o p in g
n a t i o n s .
E s ti m a t e s
s u gg e s t
t o u r i s m ’ s
s h o c k
c o uld
r edu c e g l o b a l
G D P
b y
$ 1 . 17
t r illi o n ,
o r
1 . 5
p e r
c en t ,
in
t he
m o s t
o p ti m i s ti c
s c en a r i o
( r e p r e s en t - in g
a
f o u r- m o n t h
t o u r i s m
s t a nd s ti ll )
a nd
u p t o
$ 2 . 22
t r illi o n ,
o r
2 . 8
p e r
c en t
o f
G D P ,
in
t he s c en a r i o
o f
a n
ei g h t - m o n t h
s t a nd s ti ll .
O w in g
t o
s u pp l y
c h a in
lin k a g e s ,
t he
ne g a ti ve
i m p a c t s o f
C O V I D - 19
o n
t he
e c o n o m y
c a n
b e
as
m u c h a s
t h r ee
t i m e s
t he
l o ss
o f
t o u r i s m
r e c ei p t s .
U ne m p l o y m en t
in
s o m e
c ou n t ri e s
c ou ld r i s e
b y
m o r e
t h a n
20
p e r c en t a g e
p o in t s . 16
T he
devel o p m en t
o f
t ou ri sm
p r o mo t e s
inve s t - m en t
a nd
o p enne ss
t o
m e r c h a ndi s e
t r a de
as t o u r i s m
a nd
i t s
r el a t ed
s e c t o r s
r e q ui r e
a
w ide r a n g e
o f
g oo d s
a nd
s e r vi c e s
–
m a n y
o f
w hi c h s m a ll
e c o n o m ie s
d o
n o t
h a ve
t he
c a p a c i t y
t o
p r o du c e .
I n
S I D S
a l o ne ,
a nn o un c ed
g r een - fi eld
f o r ei g n
di r e c t
inve s t m en t
( F D I )
d a t a
f o r 2015 – 2019
s h o w
t h a t
t r a vel ,
t o u r i s m
a nd h o s p i t a li t y
p r o j e c t s
c o n t r i b u t ed
t o
m o r e
t h a n h a l f
o f
a ll
ne w
inve s t m en t ,
c o m p a r ed
w i t h
16
p e r
c en t
in
t he
p r e c edin g
fi ve - y e a r
p e r i o d .
T he
C O V I D - 19
c r i s i s
i s
ex p e c t ed
t o
c a u s e
a d r a m a ti c
d r o p
in
F D I
in
2020
a nd
2021 .
G l o b a l F D I
fl o w s
a r e
f o r e c a s t
t o
de c r e a s e
b y
u p
t o
40
p e r
c en t
in
2020 ,
f r o m
U S $ 1 . 54
t r illi o n
in 2019 .
F D I
i s
p r o j e c t ed
t o
de c r e a s e
b y
a
f u r- t he r
5
t o
10
p e r
c en t
in
2021 .
T he
l a t e s t
W o r ld
1.2 A n u np r e c e d e n t e d c r i s i s f o r
a ir
an d s e a
t r a v e l
T he
c o nne c ti vi t y
b r o u g h t
b y
a i r ,
l a nd
a nd
m a r ine t r a n s p o r t
i s
a t
t he
he a r t
o f
t o u r i s m .
Be f o r e
t he c r i s i s ,
a pp r o x i m a t el y
58
p e r
c en t
o f
t he
1 . 5
b illi o n t o u r i s t s
w h o
w e r e
c r o ss in g
b o r de r s
eve r y
y e a r t r a veled
b y
a i r
c o m p a r ed
t o
39
p e r
c en t
b y
l a nd . 18
A vi a tio n
s u pp o r t ed
c l o s e
t o
37
m illi o n
j o b s w i t hin
t he
t ou ri sm
s e c t o r ,
c o n t ri b u t in g
r ou g hl y
$ 897
b illi o n
a
y e a r
t o
g l o b a l
G D P . 19
T he
p a n - de m i c
h a s ,
h o w eve r ,
led
t o
un p r e c eden t ed r e s t r i c tio n s
in
t he
g l o b a l
m o ve m en t
o f
p e o - p le s
a nd
g oo d s ,
i s o l a ti n g
m a n y
c o un t r ie s a nd
r e g i o n s .
A s
a
r e s ul t ,
t he
a vi a tio n
indu s - t r y
fa c e s
t he
dee p e s t
c r i s i s
in
i t s
hi s t o r y .
T he
l a t e s t
I C A O
e s ti m a t e s
p o in t
t o
a
p o t en ti a l l o ss
o f
$ 324
t o
$ 387
b illi o n
in
g r o ss
o p e r a t - in g
r evenue s
o f
a i r line s
in
2020 .
W i t h
a r o und 90
p e r
c en t
o f
t he
fl ee t
b ein ...
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